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Top two are separated by “goal punch + deep-run stability.” France sit #1 with 7 matches, 5W-1D-1L, 16 goals and a 2.29 frequency for a 72.04 rating. Argentina are right behind with 15 goals and a 2.14 frequency for 70.05—basically the same profile, just slightly less output.

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Your model clearly respects “tournament survival,” even with modest scoring. Croatia are #3 despite only 8 goals because they stacked 4 draws in 7 matches and kept a strong baseline rating (69.91)—consistent results over many rounds. Morocco are #4 with just 6 goals, but a full 7-match run still lands them at 68.10.

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Fewer matches forces teams to be explosive to compete with semifinalists/finalists. England are #5 with only 5 matches, yet they scored 13 goals and posted a huge 2.60 frequency, which keeps them high at 66.22. Brazil also have 5 matches and 3W-1D-1L, but with 8 goals (1.60 frequency) they land lower at 65.52.

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Clean records help, but goals (and losses) still swing the rating. Netherlands are #8 with 0 losses (3W-2D-0L) and 10 goals, giving them 64.74—steady + unbeaten. Portugal are #7 with more goals (12) and a higher frequency (2.40), but 2 losses pull them to 64.85 instead of pushing them into the top five.

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The “round-of-16 / quarters” cluster shows how your rating balances output vs sample size. Spain hit #9 with 9 goals in 4 matches (2.25 frequency) for 62.82—big output but fewer games. Japan are #10 with 5 goals and 61.37, while United States and Poland sit close (both 4 matches, ~60–61 rating) with lower goal totals.